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Are We Living In Nick Bostrom’s Speculation: различия между версиями
Are We Living In Nick Bostrom’s Speculation (править)
Версия от 23:05, 21 августа 2024
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<div style="text-align:center;">2003</div> | <div style="text-align:center;">2003</div> | ||
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= II. Overview of the original article = | = II. Overview of the original article = | ||
In the first part of the paper (The Assumption of Substrate-Independence), Bostrom describes the prerequisites for the simulation argument. He first outlines the assumption of substrate-independence, the idea that “it is not an essential property of consciousness that it is implemented on carbon-based biological neural networks inside a cranium” and “that mental states can supervene on any of a broad class of physical substrates” | In the first part of the paper (The Assumption of Substrate-Independence), Bostrom describes the prerequisites for the simulation argument. He first outlines the assumption of substrate-independence, the idea that “it is not an essential property of consciousness that it is implemented on carbon-based biological neural networks inside a cranium” and “that mental states can supervene on any of a broad class of physical substrates”. Although no references are provided and the issue is not discussed at length, it appears consistent with current scientific paradigms in the computer science and biological sciences. There have been some opposition to this idea from Roger Penrose and a few other authors, who suggested that consciousness is possible because of specific quantum mechanisms in the human brain that cannot be reproduced on other substrates, but these ideas are not accepted by most of the scientists in these fields. | ||
In the next section (The Technological Limits of Computation), Bostrom gives a detailed analysis of the computational requirements for the simulation of human mind and entire civilisations. The most important indicators are the following:* Computational complexity of the human brain: ~1016—1017 operations per second. | In the next section (The Technological Limits of Computation), Bostrom gives a detailed analysis of the computational requirements for the simulation of human mind and entire civilisations. The most important indicators are the following:* Computational complexity of the human brain: ~1016—1017 operations per second. | ||
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A similar problem is that the number of simulations that the base civilisation runs is probably different from the average as well. An additional variable <i>N<sub>base</sub></i> should be added. Assuming that the number of individuals in the first-level simulations is similar to the average for the simulations, the following change should be made: | A similar problem is that the number of simulations that the base civilisation runs is probably different from the average as well. An additional variable <i>N<sub>base</sub></i> should be added. Assuming that the number of individuals in the first-level simulations is similar to the average for the simulations, the following change should be made: | ||
[[Image:image024.gif|top]] (4) | [[Image:image024.gif|top]] | ||
<div style="text-align:center;">(4)</div> | |||
This formula is more correct than the one suggested by Bostrom.However, even with all these changes there is still one fundamental problem with the formula. The <i>f<sub>P</sub></i> variable is completely irrelevant for the base civilisation. As will be shown later, the base civilisation is governed by different laws than the simulated civilisations. Since the transition to the posthuman stage by the base civilisation is a non-repeating event, whose outcome is already determined (although it usually cannot be obtained from within a simulation) and which directly corresponds with the nature of the reality (existence of the metaverse). With regards to the base civilisation, instead of <i>f<sub>P</sub></i> probability a different variable have to be used that takes on the values of 0 (base civilisation reaches the posthuman stage and, if <i>N<sub>base</sub></i>>0, the metaverse exists) and 1 (base civilisation does not reach the posthuman stage, there is no metaverse and we live in the real world). | This formula is more correct than the one suggested by Bostrom.However, even with all these changes there is still one fundamental problem with the formula. The <i>f<sub>P</sub></i> variable is completely irrelevant for the base civilisation. As will be shown later, the base civilisation is governed by different laws than the simulated civilisations. Since the transition to the posthuman stage by the base civilisation is a non-repeating event, whose outcome is already determined (although it usually cannot be obtained from within a simulation) and which directly corresponds with the nature of the reality (existence of the metaverse). With regards to the base civilisation, instead of <i>f<sub>P</sub></i> probability a different variable have to be used that takes on the values of 0 (base civilisation reaches the posthuman stage and, if <i>N<sub>base</sub></i>>0, the metaverse exists) and 1 (base civilisation does not reach the posthuman stage, there is no metaverse and we live in the real world). | ||
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16. Source unknown. An announcement by a group of British scientists in 2001. | 16. Source unknown. An announcement by a group of British scientists in 2001. | ||
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