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Are We Living In Nick Bostrom’s Speculation: различия между версиями
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These people can have similar, indiscernible or even completely identical personalities. The same can be said about their experiences. The simulation rules, governing accumulation and propagation of changes in time can be designed for the convenience of the people running the simulation. There is no reason why in a simulation dedicated to the medieval Japan people in the rest of the world and in other epochs must be different from people in other simulations. | These people can have similar, indiscernible or even completely identical personalities. The same can be said about their experiences. The simulation rules, governing accumulation and propagation of changes in time can be designed for the convenience of the people running the simulation. There is no reason why in a simulation dedicated to the medieval Japan people in the rest of the world and in other epochs must be different from people in other simulations. | ||
The consequences of this possibility for the simulation argument are not obvious. It is not clear whether these people should be regarded as individuals or simply as instances of one individual. In the latter case the total number of simulated individuals ever can be comparable with the number of real individuals in the base reality. This in turn means that | The consequences of this possibility for the simulation argument are not obvious. It is not clear whether these people should be regarded as individuals or simply as instances of one individual. In the latter case the total number of simulated individuals ever can be comparable with the number of real individuals in the base reality. This in turn means that <i>f<sub>sim</sub></i> can attain a large value, such as 0.5. | ||
== Non-conscious people == | == Non-conscious people == | ||
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where <i>f<sub>P</sub></i> — is the fraction of all human-level technological civilisations that survive to reach a posthuman stage, [[Image:image010.gifImage10.png|top]] — is the average number of ancestor-simulations run by a posthuman civilisation and [[Image:image011.gifImage11.png|top]] — is the average number of individuals that have lived in a civilisation before it reaches a posthuman stage. | where <i>f<sub>P</sub></i> — is the fraction of all human-level technological civilisations that survive to reach a posthuman stage, [[Image:image010.gifImage10.png|top]] — is the average number of ancestor-simulations run by a posthuman civilisation and [[Image:image011.gifImage11.png|top]] — is the average number of individuals that have lived in a civilisation before it reaches a posthuman stage. | ||
Bostrom claims that | Bostrom claims that <i>f<sub>sim</sub></i> — is “the actual fraction of all observers with human-type experiences that live in simulations” [1], but he is obviously mistaken. The formula, as it is written, makes practically no sense. The numerator is equal to the average number of people simulated by one civilisation and not to the total number of simulated people (by all civilisations in the metaverse). The denominator makes no mathematical sense but it is similar to the average number of people living in a civilisation and one level below (in simulations run in this civilisation). Evidently, the value of <i>f<sub>P</sub></i>[[Image:image012.gifImage12.png|top]] will usually be very close to 1, because | ||
[[Image:image014.gifImage13.png|top]] and [[Image:image016.gifImage14.png|top]] | [[Image:image014.gifImage13.png|top]] and [[Image:image016.gifImage14.png|top]] | ||
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CPH — number of posthuman civilisations, Csim — number of simulations. | CPH — number of posthuman civilisations, Csim — number of simulations. | ||
Therefore the value of | Therefore the value of <i>f<sub>sim</sub></i>, calculated using the formula (1), will be in most cases extremely close to 0.5, which obviously contradicts Bostrom’s conclusions. | ||
The first necessary change is adding the total number of civilisations ''C'' to the formula: | The first necessary change is adding the total number of civilisations ''C'' to the formula: | ||
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== Circular reasoning == | == Circular reasoning == | ||
If we do not live in a simulation, the whole logic of using ''fI'' or <i>f<sub>P</sub></i> is invalid, because | If we do not live in a simulation, the whole logic of using ''fI'' or <i>f<sub>P</sub></i> is invalid, because <i>f<sub>sim</sub></i> is precisely zero. We know that we do not run any simulations and therefore whole argument is flawed. This is a common logical fallacy, known as a circular reasoning<ref>An argument that uses circular reasoning (also known as “begging the question”) makes a conclusion based on material that has already been assumed in the argument. | ||
</ref>. It was used, for example, by Rene Descartes to construct an argument that God exists, known as the Cartesian Circle. | </ref>. It was used, for example, by Rene Descartes to construct an argument that God exists, known as the Cartesian Circle. | ||
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== Posthuman stage in the far future == | == Posthuman stage in the far future == | ||
Bostrom says “[the] simulation argument works equally well for those who think that it will take hundreds of thousands of years to reach a “posthuman” stage of civilisation”. But this is not the case. The development of posthuman civilisation in the base reality may take much longer than in a simulation, for example because all simulations have accelerated scientific and technological development for convenience of the observers. If that is the case, the ''HBASE'' value (the number of people who lived in the base civilisation before it reached the posthuman stage) can be much greater than [[Image:image025.gifImage20.png|top]]. That would force | Bostrom says “[the] simulation argument works equally well for those who think that it will take hundreds of thousands of years to reach a “posthuman” stage of civilisation”. But this is not the case. The development of posthuman civilisation in the base reality may take much longer than in a simulation, for example because all simulations have accelerated scientific and technological development for convenience of the observers. If that is the case, the ''HBASE'' value (the number of people who lived in the base civilisation before it reached the posthuman stage) can be much greater than [[Image:image025.gifImage20.png|top]]. That would force <i>f<sub>sim</sub></i>, to be much lower, making the probability of living in a real world much higher. | ||
= VI. Errors in The Interpretation of the Simulation Argument = | = VI. Errors in The Interpretation of the Simulation Argument = | ||