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Are We Living In Nick Bostrom’s Speculation: различия между версиями
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→II. Overview of the original article
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It must be noted, however, that this analysis is irrelevant to the simulation argument. As will be explained later, only capacities of the base civilisation are significant. If we assume that we might live in a computer simulation, only the capacities of the parent civilisations are important, but there is no way to determine them. | It must be noted, however, that this analysis is irrelevant to the simulation argument. As will be explained later, only capacities of the base civilisation are significant. If we assume that we might live in a computer simulation, only the capacities of the parent civilisations are important, but there is no way to determine them. | ||
In the main section (The Core of the Simulation Argument), Bostrom suggests a formula for calculating the probability for a random person to live in a simulation. He concludes that at least one of the following propositions must be true | In the main section (The Core of the Simulation Argument), Bostrom suggests a formula for calculating the probability for a random person to live in a simulation. He concludes that at least one of the following propositions must be true<ref>This is an approximate interpretation of mathematical formulas derived in this section of the original paper. Because of the logical and mathematical errors made in the derivation, the formulas are incorrect, thus making a strict interpretation impossible. Bostrom gives his detailed interpretation of these formulas in the corresponding section (Interpretation).</ref>:* Share of civilisations that reach posthuman stage is close to zero. | ||
* Share of posthuman civilisations that are interested in running ancestor-simulations is close to zero. | * Share of posthuman civilisations that are interested in running ancestor-simulations is close to zero. | ||
* The majority of people live in one of the simulations. | * The majority of people live in one of the simulations. | ||
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Additionally, the simulation argument implies several less general assumptions about the metaverse.# The base reality contains at least one human civilisation. | Additionally, the simulation argument implies several less general assumptions about the metaverse.# The base reality contains at least one human civilisation. | ||
# A human civilisation has non-zero probability of becoming a posthuman civilisation. (No distinction is made in simulation argument between those civilisations that can become posthuman and those that cannot.) | # A human civilisation has non-zero probability of becoming a posthuman civilisation. (No distinction is made in simulation argument between those civilisations that can become posthuman and those that cannot.) | ||
# A posthuman civilisation has non-zero chances to launch at least one simulation. | # A posthuman civilisation has non-zero chances to launch at least one simulation. | ||
= III. Calculation errors in the original paper = | = III. Calculation errors in the original paper = | ||