Existential risks

An existential risk or existential threat is a potential development that could drastically (or even totally) reduce the capabilities of humankind.

Should I worry?Править

According to the Global Challenges Foundation a typical person could be five times more likely to die in a mass extinction event compared to a car crash.^[1] The Global Priorities Project later issued a retraction of the statement.^[2]

Dystopia and Risk mapПравить

Map created by Deku-shrub from the data below.

Key risks and scenariosПравить

The following list of risk encompasses long-term dystopian scenarios in addition to traditionally defined existential risks.

ExoticПравить

Alien intervention
- Examples: Contact, Independence Day, Knowing^[3]
- Causing: Direct destruction of humanity, natural/cosmic disasters or anything a super intelligence can do
Simulation termination
- Examples: The Matrix
- Causing: Direct destruction of humanity
Exotic physics
- Examples: Creation of false vacuums
- Causing: Direct destruction, simulation termination or environmental collapse

ConflictПравить

Nuclear war
- Examples: Anything from a single accidental detonation or rogue state up to collapse of MAD and muti-national warfare
- Causing: Accelerating warfare or environmental collapse
Biological warfare or another catastrophic natural super virus
- Examples: National state attacks through to a 28 days later style ultra-transmissable and deadly plague
- Causing: destroying humanity, accelerating warfare, natural disasters or environmental collapse
Cyberwarfare, terrorism, rogue states
- Examples: Contemporary nation-state hacking, WannaCry^[4] type events, terrorist use of social media, terrorist attacks, contained biological or nuclear attacks
- Causes: Accelerating warfare due to national existential risks^[5], social collapse^[6] or reactionary governments^[7]

EnvironmentalПравить

Accelerating climate change
- Examples: This happened now :(
- Causing: Further natural disasters, depletion of the world's resources or driving dangerous bio or geo engineering projects
Errant geo-engineering or GMOs
- Examples: Solar radiation management, carbon dioxide removal projects
- Causing: Depletion of resources, further environmental disasters, nano-pollution or environmental collapse
Natural disasters or Cosmic disasters
- Examples: Asteroid strike, deadly cosmic radiation, ice shelf collapse, bee extinction, crop plagues, ice age. Could even include the Sun's supernova, proton decay and final heat death of the universe.
- Causing: Resource depletion, social or environmental collapse
Resource depletion
- Examples: Fossil fuels, clean water, serious air quality impact, rare earths, localised overpopulation
- Causing - Social or environmental collapse
Nanotechnology
- Examples: Gray goo
- Causes: Destruction of humanity, natural disasters or environmental collapse

Future computing and intelligenceПравить

Errant AI, posthuman take over or computing overcomplexity
- Examples: Unfriendly artificial general intelligence, unfriendly elite transhumans (e.g. Khan from Star Trek)^[8] or unstable interconnected computing (e.g the events of Dune: The Butlerian Jihad)^[9]
- Causing: Accelerating warfare, societal collapse, totalitarianism

SocialПравить

Mega-autocractic / Neo-fascist or other totalitarian dystopias
- Examples: 1984, Gattaca, Star Trek etc
- Causing: Social and technological stagnation or 21st century soma
21st century soma
- Examples: Brave New World, Idiocracy
- Causing: technological stagnation or social collapse
Social collapse
- Examples: Max Max, 28 Days Later etc
- Causing: Accelerating warfare, cyberwarfare/terrorism, technological stagnation, autocracy

AttitudesПравить

Stances that can be adopted towards existential risks include:

Inevitabilism - the view that, for example, "the victory of transhumanism is inevitable"
Precautionary - emphasising the downsides of action in areas of relative ignorance
Proactionary - emphasising the dangers of inaction in areas of relative ignorance
Techno-optimism - the view that technological development is likely to find good solutions to all existential risks
Techno-progressive - the view that existential risks must be actively studied and managedШаблон:Disputed

Things that are not existential risksПравить

Declining sperm count in men whilst problematic for fertility, will not spell the end of humanity^[10]
Increased sexual liberal attitudes will not lead to a Sodom and Gomorrah^[11] scenario
The coming of a religious apocalypse or end times are unlikely
Sex robots, no matter what Futurama says^[12]
Overpopulation caused by life extension will not lead to Soylent Green type scenarios, rather potentially cause localised instabilities and resource depletion^[13]

External linksПравить

ReferencesПравить

[1] Human Extinction Isn't That Unlikely

[2] Errata to Global Catastrophic Risks 2016

[3] ttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knowing_(film)

[4] ttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WannaCry_ransomware_attack

[5] .g. Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections

[6] .g. spread of Islamism

[7] .g. Theresa May's mass surveillance programmes

[8] ttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khan_Noonien_Singh

[9] ttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dune:_The_Butlerian_Jihad

[10] ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-40719743

[11] ttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sodom_and_Gomorrah

[12] ttps://theinfosphere.org/Robosexuality

[13] Deconstructing overpopulation for life extensionists

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