Futurism
Not to be confused with Futurism.com
Futurism—also known as Future Studies, Futurology and Foresight Studies—is the systematic exploration and evaluation of potential future scenarios.
Evaluation criteria for scenarios include:
- How credible is the scenario?
- How attractive is the scenario (after any initial "future shock" has been set aside)?
- What steps can be taken to prepare for the scenario?
- What steps can be taken to increase (or decrease) the likelihood of that scenario?
Important future scenarios[править]
Future scenarios (or types of scenario) that deserve highlighting include varieties of each of the following:
- The Singularity
- Existential risk
- Existential opportunities
- Technofeudalism
- Technoscepticism
- Technocapitalism
- Technoconservatism
- Technolibertarianism
- Technoprogressivism
- Cosmists vs. Terrans
- Radical futurism - transhumanist scenarios within futurism
Methods of futurism[править]
Formal methods applied by futurists include:
- Environmental scanning
- Trend analysis
- Cyclical pattern analysis
- Cross impact analysis
- Narrative development
- Scenario development
- Backcasting
- Delphi method
- Prediction markets
- State of the Future Index
- Superforecasting
- Zoom out, zoom in
Significant futurist organizations[править]
- The World Future Society
- Association of Professional Futurists
- The Millennium Project
- Manchester Futurists
- Institute for the Future
- London Futurists
- Long Now Foundation
- Futurism.com (a curated newsfeed)
See also[править]
- Career options for aspiring futurists
- Laws of Futurism lists statements sometimes described as 'laws', which can provide insight about futurism
- Books lists books that provide helpful material about futurist methods
- Reviews of predictions reviews historical sets of serious predictions about the future
- Futurists ranked by influence a list maintained by Ross Dawson
