Are We Living In Nick Bostrom’s Speculation: различия между версиями

Are We Living In Nick Bostrom’s Speculation (править)

Версия от 19:39, 21 августа 2024

567 байт убрано , 21 август

→‎Errors in the formula

Rodion

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@@ Строка 200: / Строка 200: @@
 The next problem is that the [[Image:image006.gif|top]]&nbsp;in the denominator of the formula (1) is a wrong value for the number of individuals that have lived in a ''base civilisation ''before it reaches a posthuman stage. This is a specific number that has nothing whatsoever in common with the average value for all civilisations in the metaverse. Therefore the next change is a replacement of [[Image:image006.gif|top]]&nbsp;with the new variable <i>H<sub>base</sub></i>, the number of people that lived in the base civilisation before it reached the posthuman stage:
-[[Image:image022.gif|top]]  (3)
+[[Image:image022.gif|top]]
+<div style="text-align:center;">(3)</div>
 A similar problem is that the number of simulations that the base civilisation runs is probably different from the average as well. An additional variable ''Nbase'' should be added. Assuming that the number of individuals in the first-level simulations is similar to the average for the simulations, the following change should be made:
-[[Image:image024.gifImage19.png|top]]&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; (4)
+[[Image:image024.gif|top]] (4)
 This formula is more correct than the one suggested by Bostrom.However, even with all these changes there is still one fundamental problem with the formula. The <i>f<sub>P</sub></i> variable is completely irrelevant for the base civilisation. As will be shown later, the base civilisation is governed by different laws than the simulated civilisations. Since the transition to the posthuman stage by the base civilisation is a non-repeating event, whose outcome is already determined (although it usually cannot be obtained from within a simulation) and which directly corresponds with the nature of the reality (existence of the metaverse). With regards to the base civilisation, instead of <i>f<sub>P</sub></i>probability a different variable have to be used that takes on the values of 0 (base civilisation reaches the posthuman stage and, if ''Nbase''>0, the metaverse exists) and 1 (base civilisation does not reach the posthuman stage, there is no metaverse and we live in the real world).