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Are We Living In Nick Bostrom’s Speculation: различия между версиями
→Errors in the formula
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where <i>f<sub>P</sub></i> — is the fraction of all human-level technological civilisations that survive to reach a posthuman stage, [[Image:image010.gif|top]] — is the average number of ancestor-simulations run by a posthuman civilisation and [[Image:image006.gif|top]] — is the average number of individuals that have lived in a civilisation before it reaches a posthuman stage. | where <i>f<sub>P</sub></i> — is the fraction of all human-level technological civilisations that survive to reach a posthuman stage, [[Image:image010.gif|top]] — is the average number of ancestor-simulations run by a posthuman civilisation and [[Image:image006.gif|top]] — is the average number of individuals that have lived in a civilisation before it reaches a posthuman stage. | ||
Bostrom claims that <i>f<sub>sim</sub></i> — is “the actual fraction of all observers with human-type experiences that live in simulations” | Bostrom claims that <i>f<sub>sim</sub></i> — is “the actual fraction of all observers with human-type experiences that live in simulations”, but he is obviously mistaken. The formula, as it is written, makes practically no sense. The numerator is equal to the average number of people simulated by one civilisation and not to the total number of simulated people (by all civilisations in the metaverse). The denominator makes no mathematical sense but it is similar to the average number of people living in a civilisation and one level below (in simulations run in this civilisation). Evidently, the value of <i>f<sub>P</sub></i>[[Image:image010.gif|top]] will usually be very close to 1, because | ||
[[Image:image014.gif|top]] and [[Image:image016.gif|top]] | [[Image:image014.gif|top]] and [[Image:image016.gif|top]] | ||