Редактирование: Existential risk

[[File:Et.jpg|thumb|right|[[Futurist humour]]]]
An '''existential risk''' or '''existential threat''' is a potential development that could drastically (or even totally) reduce the capabilities of humankind. 

== Should I worry? ==
According to the [[Global Challenges Foundation]] a typical person could be five times more likely to die in a mass extinction event compared to a car crash.<ref>[http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/04/a-human-extinction-isnt-that-unlikely/480444/ Human Extinction Isn't That Unlikely]</ref> The [[Global Priorities Project]] later issued a retraction of the statement.<ref>[http://globalprioritiesproject.org/2016/05/errata-to-global-catastrophic-risks-2016/ Errata to Global Catastrophic Risks 2016]</ref>
== Dystopia and Risk map ==
Map created by [[User:Deku-shrub|Deku-shrub]] from the data below.

[[File:Hpexrisk.png]]

== Key risks and scenarios ==
The following list of risk encompasses long-term dystopian scenarios in addition to traditionally defined existential risks.
=== Exotic ===
* [[Extraterrestrial beings#Alien intervention| Alien intervention]]
** Examples: [[Contact]], [[Independence Day]], Knowing<ref>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knowing_(film)</ref>
** Causing: Direct destruction of humanity, natural/cosmic disasters or anything a super intelligence can do
* [[Simulation termination]]
** Examples: [[The Matrix]]
** Causing: Direct destruction of humanity
* [[Exotic physics]]
** Examples: Creation of false vacuums
** Causing: Direct destruction, simulation termination or environmental collapse

=== Conflict ===
* [[Nuclear war]]
** Examples: Anything from a single accidental detonation or rogue state up to collapse of MAD and muti-national warfare
** Causing: Accelerating warfare or environmental collapse
* [[Biological warfare]] or another catastrophic natural super virus
** Examples: National state attacks through to a [[28 days later]] style ultra-transmissable and deadly plague
** Causing: destroying humanity, accelerating warfare, natural disasters or environmental collapse
* [[Cyberwarfare]], [[Terrorism|terrorism]], rogue states
** Examples: Contemporary nation-state hacking, WannaCry<ref>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WannaCry_ransomware_attack</ref> type events, terrorist use of social media, terrorist attacks, contained biological or nuclear attacks
** Causes: Accelerating warfare due to national existential risks<ref>e.g. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_interference_in_the_2016_United_States_elections Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections]</ref>, social collapse<ref>e.g. spread of Islamism</ref> or reactionary governments<ref>e.g. Theresa May's mass surveillance programmes</ref>

=== Environmental ===
* [[Accelerating climate change]]
** Examples: This happened now :(
** Causing: Further natural disasters, depletion of the world's resources or driving dangerous bio or geo engineering projects
* [[Opposition to geo-engineering|Errant geo-engineering]] or [[Opposition to genetically modified food|GMOs]]
** Examples: Solar radiation management, carbon dioxide removal projects
** Causing: Depletion of resources, further environmental disasters, nano-pollution or environmental collapse
* [[Natural disasters]] or [[Cosmic disasters]]
** Examples: Asteroid strike, deadly cosmic radiation, ice shelf collapse, bee extinction, crop plagues, ice age. Could even include the Sun's supernova, proton decay and final heat death of the universe.
** Causing: Resource depletion, social or environmental collapse
* [[Resource depletion]]
** Examples: Fossil fuels, clean water, serious air quality impact, rare earths, localised [[overpopulation]]
** Causing - Social or environmental collapse
* [[Gray goo|Nanotechnology]]
** Examples: Gray goo
** Causes: Destruction of humanity, natural disasters or environmental collapse

=== Future computing and intelligence ===
* [[AI risk|Errant AI]], [[posthuman transhumanism|posthuman]] take over or computing overcomplexity
** Examples: [[Unfriendly AI|Unfriendly artificial general intelligence]], unfriendly elite transhumans (e.g. Khan from Star Trek)<ref>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khan_Noonien_Singh</ref> or unstable interconnected computing (e.g the events of [[Dune]]: The Butlerian Jihad)<ref>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dune:_The_Butlerian_Jihad</ref>
** Causing: Accelerating warfare, societal collapse, totalitarianism

=== Social ===
* [[Oligarchic transhumanism|Mega-autocractic]] / [[Fascist transhumanism|Neo-fascist]] or other totalitarian dystopias
** Examples: [[1984]], [[Gattaca]], [[Star Trek]] etc
** Causing: Social and [[technological stagnation]] or 21st century soma
* [[21st century soma]]
** Examples: [[Brave New World]], [[Idiocracy]]
** Causing: technological stagnation or social collapse
* [[Social collapse]]
** Examples: Max Max, 28 Days Later etc
** Causing: Accelerating warfare, cyberwarfare/terrorism, technological stagnation, autocracy

== Attitudes ==
Stances that can be adopted towards existential risks include:

* '''[[Transhumanist inevitablism|Inevitabilism]]''' - the view that, for example, "the victory of transhumanism is inevitable"
* '''Precautionary''' - emphasising the downsides of action in areas of relative ignorance
* '''Proactionary''' - emphasising the dangers of inaction in areas of relative ignorance
* '''[[Techno-optimism]]''' - the view that technological development is likely to find good solutions to all existential risks
* '''Techno-progressive''' - the view that existential risks must be actively studied and managed{{disputed}}
== Things that are not existential risks ==
* Declining sperm count in men whilst problematic for fertility, will not spell the end of humanity<ref>http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-40719743</ref>
* Increased sexual liberal attitudes will not lead to a Sodom and Gomorrah<ref>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sodom_and_Gomorrah</ref> scenario
* The coming of a religious apocalypse or end times are unlikely
* [[Sex robots]], no matter what [[Futurama]] says<ref>https://theinfosphere.org/Robosexuality</ref>
* [[Overpopulation]] caused by [[life extension]] will not lead to [[Soylent Green]] type scenarios, rather potentially cause localised instabilities and resource depletion<ref>[http://pirate.london/2017/01/deconstructing-overpopulation-for-life-extensionists/ Deconstructing overpopulation for life extensionists]</ref>

== See also ==
* [[Dystopian transhumanism]]
* [[Existential opportunities]]
* [[Future of Humanity Institute]]
* [[Lifeboat Foundation]]
* [[Suffering risk]]

== External links ==
* {{wikipedia|Global catastrophic risk}}
* [http://immortality-roadmap.com/x-risks%20map15.pdf Typology of human extinction risks] by [[Alexey Turchin]] on the [[Immortality Roadmap]]
* [https://nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html Nick Bostrom's 2002 existential risk paper]
* http://www.existential-risk.org/
* {{reddit|ExistentialRisk}}

== References ==
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[[Category:Futurism]]
[[Category:Singularitarianism]]
[[Category:Dystopian transhumanism]]
[[Category:Infographics]]
[[Category:Existential risk]]