Редактирование: Superforecasting (раздел)

== Characteristics of superforecasters ==

The book highlights the following characteristics as being the cause of the success of superforecasters:

* Avoidance of taking an ideological approach, which restricts the set of information that the forecaster considers
* Pursuit of an evidence-based approach
* Willingness to search out potential sources of disconfirming evidence
* Willingness to incrementally adjust forecasts in the light of new evidence
* The ability to break down estimates into a series of constituent questions that can, individually, be more easily calculated
* The desire to obtain several different perspectives on a question, which can then be combined into an aggregate viewpoint
* Comfort with mathematical and probabilistic reasoning
* Adoption of careful, precise language, rather than vague terms (such as "might") whose apparent meaning can change with hindsight
* Acceptance of contingency rather than 'fate' or 'inevitability' as being the factor responsible for outcomes
* Avoidance of 'groupthink' in which undue respect among team members prevents sufficient consideration of alternative viewpoints
* Willingness to learn from past forecasting experiences - including both successes and failures
* A growth mindset, in which personal characteristics and skill are seen as capable of improvement, rather than being fixed.