Редактирование: Superforecasting (раздел)

[[File:Superforecasting.jpg|thumb|right|Published in 2015 by Crown Publishers New York]]
'''Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction''' is a [[futurism|future focused]] book by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner that describes a set of methods to improve forecasting abilities.

The book draws on:
* Results from four years of online competitions for forecasters held under the [http://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/ace Aggregative Contingent Estimation] project of [http://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/about-iarpa IARPA (Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity)]
* Reflections from contest participants whose persistently scored highly in the competition - people who became known as 'superforecasters'
* Insight from the [https://www.gjopen.com/ Good Judgement Project] co-created by Philip E. Tetlock
* Reviews of the accuracy of predictions made publicly by politicians, political analysts, and media figures
* Other research into decision-making, cognitive biases, and group dynamics.

Forecasters and superforecasters from the Good Judgement Project submitted more than 10,000 predictions over four years in response to questions about the likelihood of specified outcomes happening within given timescales over the following 3-12 months. Forecasts addressed the fields of geopolitics and economics.