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Are We Living In Nick Bostrom’s Speculation: различия между версиями

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Are We Living In Nick Bostrom’s Speculation (править)

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<div style="text-align:center;">2003</div>
<div style="text-align:center;">2003</div>


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Keywords: reality, simulation, posthuman civilisations, ancestor simulations, simulation argument, consciousness, human.
Keywords: reality, simulation, posthuman civilisations, ancestor simulations, simulation argument, consciousness, human.


= I.         Introduction =
= I. Introduction =


The idea that our world might be a computer simulation is a relatively recent one. The first ideas of full reality simulation appeared only about 20 years ago. In 1989 Jaron Lanier coined the term «virtual reality», but only since 1990s it became conceivable that a whole world could be simulated. Computer games, especially 3D ones, such as Doom, Quake and many more recent titles, showed how the world (or at least a large part of it) could be recreated on the computer monitor. Several science fiction movies made in the end of 1990s and in the beginning of the 21st century elaborated on these ideas, developing some of the philosophical consequences of simulations and, more importantly, communicating them to the wide audience for the first time.* Abre los ojos (Open Your Eyes), 1997 — The main character in this movie signed a contract with a cryonics company. After his death his body was frozen and his mind placed into a computer simulation. In this story, the personalities of all humans are simulated only to the extent necessary for their interactions with the main character. For example, one of the secondary characters, a psychiatrist, has two daughters, but does not know their names.  
The idea that our world might be a computer simulation is a relatively recent one. The first ideas of full reality simulation appeared only about 20 years ago. In 1989 Jaron Lanier coined the term «virtual reality», but only since 1990s it became conceivable that a whole world could be simulated. Computer games, especially 3D ones, such as Doom, Quake and many more recent titles, showed how the world (or at least a large part of it) could be recreated on the computer monitor. Several science fiction movies made in the end of 1990s and in the beginning of the 21st century elaborated on these ideas, developing some of the philosophical consequences of simulations and, more importantly, communicating them to the wide audience for the first time.* Abre los ojos (Open Your Eyes), 1997 — The main character in this movie signed a contract with a cryonics company. After his death his body was frozen and his mind placed into a computer simulation. In this story, the personalities of all humans are simulated only to the extent necessary for their interactions with the main character. For example, one of the secondary characters, a psychiatrist, has two daughters, but does not know their names.  
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Metaverse — a hypothetical set of all existing universes. This set includes all basic realities, as well as all simulations run from any of the universes (both real and simulated) in this set.
Metaverse — a hypothetical set of all existing universes. This set includes all basic realities, as well as all simulations run from any of the universes (both real and simulated) in this set.


= II.      Overview of the original article =
= II. Overview of the original article =


In the first part of the paper (The Assumption of Substrate-Independence), Bostrom describes the prerequisites for the simulation argument. He first outlines the assumption of substrate-independence, the idea that “it is not an essential property of consciousness that it is implemented on carbon-based biological neural networks inside a cranium” and “that mental states can supervene on any of a broad class of physical substrates” [1]. Although no references are provided and the issue is not discussed at length, it appears consistent with current scientific paradigms in the computer science and biological sciences. There have been some opposition to this idea from Roger Penrose [7] and a few other authors, who suggested that consciousness is possible because of specific quantum mechanisms in the human brain that cannot be reproduced on other substrates, but these ideas are not accepted by most of the scientists in these fields.
In the first part of the paper (The Assumption of Substrate-Independence), Bostrom describes the prerequisites for the simulation argument. He first outlines the assumption of substrate-independence, the idea that “it is not an essential property of consciousness that it is implemented on carbon-based biological neural networks inside a cranium” and “that mental states can supervene on any of a broad class of physical substrates”. Although no references are provided and the issue is not discussed at length, it appears consistent with current scientific paradigms in the computer science and biological sciences. There have been some opposition to this idea from Roger Penrose and a few other authors, who suggested that consciousness is possible because of specific quantum mechanisms in the human brain that cannot be reproduced on other substrates, but these ideas are not accepted by most of the scientists in these fields.


In the next section (The Technological Limits of Computation), Bostrom gives a detailed analysis of the computational requirements for the simulation of human mind and entire civilisations. The most important indicators are the following:* Computational complexity of the human brain: ~1016—1017 operations per second.  
In the next section (The Technological Limits of Computation), Bostrom gives a detailed analysis of the computational requirements for the simulation of human mind and entire civilisations. The most important indicators are the following:* Computational complexity of the human brain: ~1016—1017 operations per second.  
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# A posthuman civilisation has non-zero chances to launch at least one simulation.
# A posthuman civilisation has non-zero chances to launch at least one simulation.


= III.    Calculation errors in the original paper =
= III. Calculation errors in the original paper =


In addition to the logical weaknesses, the formulas that are used to calculate probability of living in a simulation have various errors and shortcomings. Some of them are not very important and do not affect the reasoning, while others are more serious.
In addition to the logical weaknesses, the formulas that are used to calculate probability of living in a simulation have various errors and shortcomings. Some of them are not very important and do not affect the reasoning, while others are more serious.
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A similar problem is that the number of simulations that the base civilisation runs is probably different from the average as well. An additional variable <i>N<sub>base</sub></i> should be added. Assuming that the number of individuals in the first-level simulations is similar to the average for the simulations, the following change should be made:
A similar problem is that the number of simulations that the base civilisation runs is probably different from the average as well. An additional variable <i>N<sub>base</sub></i> should be added. Assuming that the number of individuals in the first-level simulations is similar to the average for the simulations, the following change should be made:


[[Image:image024.gif|top]] (4)
[[Image:image024.gif|top]]
<div style="text-align:center;">(4)</div>


This formula is more correct than the one suggested by Bostrom.However, even with all these changes there is still one fundamental problem with the formula. The <i>f<sub>P</sub></i> variable is completely irrelevant for the base civilisation. As will be shown later, the base civilisation is governed by different laws than the simulated civilisations. Since the transition to the posthuman stage by the base civilisation is a non-repeating event, whose outcome is already determined (although it usually cannot be obtained from within a simulation) and which directly corresponds with the nature of the reality (existence of the metaverse). With regards to the base civilisation, instead of <i>f<sub>P</sub></i> probability a different variable have to be used that takes on the values of 0 (base civilisation reaches the posthuman stage and, if <i>N<sub>base</sub></i>&gt;0, the metaverse exists) and 1 (base civilisation does not reach the posthuman stage, there is no metaverse and we live in the real world).
This formula is more correct than the one suggested by Bostrom.However, even with all these changes there is still one fundamental problem with the formula. The <i>f<sub>P</sub></i> variable is completely irrelevant for the base civilisation. As will be shown later, the base civilisation is governed by different laws than the simulated civilisations. Since the transition to the posthuman stage by the base civilisation is a non-repeating event, whose outcome is already determined (although it usually cannot be obtained from within a simulation) and which directly corresponds with the nature of the reality (existence of the metaverse). With regards to the base civilisation, instead of <i>f<sub>P</sub></i> probability a different variable have to be used that takes on the values of 0 (base civilisation reaches the posthuman stage and, if <i>N<sub>base</sub></i>&gt;0, the metaverse exists) and 1 (base civilisation does not reach the posthuman stage, there is no metaverse and we live in the real world).
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In addition to the reasons against allowing nested simulations, there are reasons against running simulations of the posthuman civilisations in general. They will be examined later.
In addition to the reasons against allowing nested simulations, there are reasons against running simulations of the posthuman civilisations in general. They will be examined later.


= IV.   Reasoning errors in the original paper =
= IV. Reasoning errors in the original paper =


The main mistakes in the Bostrom article are related to circular reasoning, auto-reference, observational bias and causation errors. To sum it in a few words, it is not correct to derive anything from our experience if we live in a simulation.
The main mistakes in the Bostrom article are related to circular reasoning, auto-reference, observational bias and causation errors. To sum it in a few words, it is not correct to derive anything from our experience if we live in a simulation.
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Another important implication of the scientific approach is that untestable hypotheses should be ignored. S. Novella asks “What can a scientific sceptic say about such claims? Only that they are outside the realm of science, and that science can have only an agnostic view towards untestable hypotheses.” For this reason whether we live in a simulation or not should be a matter of personal belief, not scientific enquiry, unless additional evidence is uncovered.
Another important implication of the scientific approach is that untestable hypotheses should be ignored. S. Novella asks “What can a scientific sceptic say about such claims? Only that they are outside the realm of science, and that science can have only an agnostic view towards untestable hypotheses.” For this reason whether we live in a simulation or not should be a matter of personal belief, not scientific enquiry, unless additional evidence is uncovered.


= V.      Arguments against the simulation hypothesis =
= V. Arguments against the simulation hypothesis =


In addition to uncovering logical errors with the simulation argument, it makes sense to point out several factors that can affect whether we live in a simulation or not. They all have in common an assumption that our civilisation might have some special qualities that are unlikely to be present in a simulated civilisation.
In addition to uncovering logical errors with the simulation argument, it makes sense to point out several factors that can affect whether we live in a simulation or not. They all have in common an assumption that our civilisation might have some special qualities that are unlikely to be present in a simulated civilisation.
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Bostrom says “[the] simulation argument works equally well for those who think that it will take hundreds of thousands of years to reach a “posthuman” stage of civilisation”. But this is not the case. The development of posthuman civilisation in the base reality may take much longer than in a simulation, for example because all simulations have accelerated scientific and technological development for convenience of the observers. If that is the case, the <i>H<sub>base</sub></i> value (the number of people who lived in the base civilisation before it reached the posthuman stage) can be much greater than [[Image:image006.gif|top]]. That would force <i>f<sub>sim</sub></i>, to be much lower, making the probability of living in a real world much higher.
Bostrom says “[the] simulation argument works equally well for those who think that it will take hundreds of thousands of years to reach a “posthuman” stage of civilisation”. But this is not the case. The development of posthuman civilisation in the base reality may take much longer than in a simulation, for example because all simulations have accelerated scientific and technological development for convenience of the observers. If that is the case, the <i>H<sub>base</sub></i> value (the number of people who lived in the base civilisation before it reached the posthuman stage) can be much greater than [[Image:image006.gif|top]]. That would force <i>f<sub>sim</sub></i>, to be much lower, making the probability of living in a real world much higher.


= VI.   Errors in The Interpretation of the Simulation Argument =
= VI. Errors in The Interpretation of the Simulation Argument =


== Laws governing the simulations ==
== Laws governing the simulations ==
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# The idea of afterlife is somewhat logical, as explained above in the, but there are no reasons to believe that there will be any sort of reward or punishment. The posthuman beings capable of running a simulation are very unlikely to have an irrational and barbarous mentality necessary for that.
# The idea of afterlife is somewhat logical, as explained above in the, but there are no reasons to believe that there will be any sort of reward or punishment. The posthuman beings capable of running a simulation are very unlikely to have an irrational and barbarous mentality necessary for that.


= VII.Conclusion =
= VII. Conclusion =


Bostrom’s formula for calculating the probability of living in a simulation contains serious mathematical errors. The probability theory is used in the original paper incorrectly and without taking the philosophical aspects of the problem into consideration. The arguments based on the mathematical calculations have additional logical errors, such as circular reasoning, and ignore the observational bias.
Bostrom’s formula for calculating the probability of living in a simulation contains serious mathematical errors. The probability theory is used in the original paper incorrectly and without taking the philosophical aspects of the problem into consideration. The arguments based on the mathematical calculations have additional logical errors, such as circular reasoning, and ignore the observational bias.
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It can be concluded that the reality of our world remains the question of personal beliefs. At the same time, the reality of our world does not impose additional limitations on the prospects of the technological progress, the possibility of reaching the posthuman stage and running simulations.
It can be concluded that the reality of our world remains the question of personal beliefs. At the same time, the reality of our world does not impose additional limitations on the prospects of the technological progress, the possibility of reaching the posthuman stage and running simulations.


= VIII.         References =
= VIII. References =


1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Are You Living In a Computer Simulation? Nick Bostrom. Philosophical Quarterly, 2003, Vol. 53, No. 211, pp. 243-255.http://www.simulation-argument.com/simulation.html
1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Are You Living In a Computer Simulation? Nick Bostrom. Philosophical Quarterly, 2003, Vol. 53, No. 211, pp. 243-255.http://www.simulation-argument.com/simulation.html
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16.&nbsp; Source unknown. An announcement by a group of British scientists in 2001.
16.&nbsp; Source unknown. An announcement by a group of British scientists in 2001.
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Источник — https://transhumanist.ru/Служебная:Сравнение_версий/9607...9622