Are We Living In Nick Bostrom’s Speculation: различия между версиями

The next problem is that the [[Image:image006.gif|top]] in the denominator of the formula (1) is a wrong value for the number of individuals that have lived in a ''base civilisation ''before it reaches a posthuman stage. This is a specific number that has nothing whatsoever in common with the average value for all civilisations in the metaverse. Therefore the next change is a replacement of [[Image:image006.gif|top]] with the new variable ''Hbase'', the number of people that lived in the base civilisation before it reached the posthuman stage:

Bostrom says “[the] simulation argument works equally well for those who think that it will take hundreds of thousands of years to reach a “posthuman” stage of civilisation”. But this is not the case. The development of posthuman civilisation in the base reality may take much longer than in a simulation, for example because all simulations have accelerated scientific and technological development for convenience of the observers. If that is the case, the ''HBASE'' value (the number of people who lived in the base civilisation before it reached the posthuman stage) can be much greater than [[Image:image025.gifImage20.png|top]]. That would force <i>f_sim</i>, to be much lower, making the probability of living in a real world much higher.